Seminar II

Friday 7 April 2017 –  Credit and macroeconomic dynamics
Aula 3 SSSUP

h 16.30

Policy experiments and financial markets: a complex evolving system perspective
By Prof. M. Napoletano, Sciences Po

Some evidence on the interaction between credit dynamics and fiscal policy
By Prof. A. Roventini, SSSUP

The recent financial crises and the ensuing recession has shown – again – that credit and macroeconomic dynamics are intimately intertwined. Unfortunately, standard macroeconomic models are not able to fully account the complex relationship between financial markets and the real economy. After having discussed the limit of current models, fresh empirical evidence about the relationship between credit spread, GDP and fiscal policies will be provided employing Threshold Vector Auto-Regression Models. Finally,  we will discuss how concepts and ideas from complex network theory and agent-based modeling can usefully be employed to analyze for the role of finance in macroeconomic theory, and to study the impact of different sets of policies (monetary, fiscal and macro- prudential ones) on financial markets and their consequences for the overall macroeconomic dynamics of advanced economies.

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